The Latest from Iran (20 May): A Tip of the Hat to President Obama?

0610 GMT: It's not often you see Iranian State media casting President Obama in a good light, but Press TV does so this morning, "World Powers Hopeful about Iran-P5+1 talks in Baghdad: Obama".

The Iranian outlet's optimism is striking when neither The Washington Post nor The New York Times carry any story about the G8 summit, where the US President made his statement, and Iran. (However, it should be noted the the Times was fed the line by Adminstration officials on Friday, "Heading Into Talks With Iran, U.S. Sees Hopeful Signs".)

The reason for Press TV's decision to headline the story is clear in its text, as it cites that Times article,  "These incentives may include easing restrictions regarding airplane parts."

Translation: the Islamic Republic is looking for a goodwill sign that the US and European powers will ease sanctions.

Question: does that gesture have to take place before Iran tables any proposal about its uranium enrichment?


from EA WorldView: EA Iran

The Latest from Iran (19 May): Bad Numbers for Ahmadinejad and Regime's "Islamic Awakening"

0630 GMT: We begin with a 21-nation survey by the Pew Research Center of attitudes around Iran. Pew's headline is "A Global 'No' To a Nuclear-Armed Iran", but we are more interested in the political dimensions of the outcome.

The survey offers bad news for the regime's projection of an "Islamic Awakening" following the path of Iran's 1979 revolution and the next 33 years:

Iran is...unpopular in many predominantly Muslim nations who are its neighbors. Roughly six-in-ten Lebanese (61%) give the Islamic Republic a negative rating, although views are sharply divided among the country’s major religious communities. About nine-in-ten Lebanese Shia Muslims (91%) hold a positive view of Iran, compared with just 5% of Sunni Muslims and 32% of Christians.

In Turkey, where diplomatic tensions with Iran have increased over the last year, 55% of the people have an unfavorable opinion about Iran, while only 26% express a favorable view. 

Jordanians (79% unfavorable) and Egyptians (76%) give Iran especially poor marks. Moreover, ratings for Iran have declined precipitously since 2006, when 59% of Egyptians and 49% of Jordanians expressed a positive view.

There is also a generation gap on this question in some countries in the region. Young people in Tunisia, ages 18-29, are 16 percentage points more likely to have an unfavorable view of Iran than are people 50 years of age and older. In Turkey the generation gap is 14 points, while in Lebanon it is ten points.

The return for President Ahmadinejad is similar, except in two locations:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad receives largely negative reviews in most of the predominantly Muslim nations surveyed. However, Pakistan is again a major exception. About half of Pakistanis (47%) express a favorable opinion of Ahmadinejad, while just 6% give him an unfavorable rating (47% do not offer an opinion). Also, a plurality of Tunisians (42%) hold a positive view of the Iranian leader.

Once more, Lebanese opinions are split along religious lines, with nearly all Shia (95%) expressing a favorable view of Ahmadinejad and nearly all Sunnis (92%) offering a negative rating. Nearly six-in-ten Christians (57%) also see him in a negative light.

About half of Turks (48%) and large majorities of Jordanians (83%) and Egyptians (73%) have an unfavorable view of the Iranian president.

One immediate lesson from the numbers: the Islamic Republic's strategy for influence has looked to Egypt as a focal point, with the ousting of the Mubarak regime and the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood as a leading political force offering opportunities for Tehran.

We had a far different view from early 2011, arguing that any Egyptian faction, including the Brotherhood, would be looking to local concerns rather than Iranian guidance for its policies. The highly unfavourable view of the Iranian regime in Pew's numbers is powerful support for that analysis.


from EA WorldView: EA Iran

News from Iran - Week 20 - 2012

Week 20

News of the Prisoners

A- Transfers

  • Javad Alikhani transferred to Modarres hospital for kidney stones problems.
  • Mohsen Mirdamadi was transferred to hospital from Evin on Sunday.
  • Narges Mohammadi transferred to Evin clinic and then to Zanjan prison.
  • Sarir Sadeghi transferred from Pelak 100 to Shiraz prison.
  • Riaz Sobhani transferred from Rejaei Shahr handcuffed and shackled to a hospital in Tehran

 

B- Arrests/Incarcerations

 

C-Liberations

  • Zahed Banafeshi arrested on May 1st in Sanandaj, released on bail from Intelligence detention center.
  • Babol University student activist Moein Ghamin has been released after 23 days in detention.
  • Shirkoo Kordi arrested on May 1st in Sanandaj, released on bail from Intelligence detention center.
  • Mohammad Latifi arrested on May 1st in Sanandaj, released on bail from Intelligence detention center. 
  • Ronak Safarzadeh, an Iranian Kurd, released after 55 months.
  • Hamid Tarimoradi arrested on May 1st in Sanandaj, released on bail from Intelligence detention center.
  • Iran Freedom Movement member Mohammad Tavasoli has been released on furlough.
  • After more than 2 years in prison, student activist Sina Zahiri was released from Rejaei Shahr prison.

 

D-Other News

  • Activist Peyman Aref has been summoned to court once again.
  • Opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi, under house arrest, met with his family.
  • Iran opposition leader Mir-Hossein Moussavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard, under house arrest, met with Rahnavard's mother.
  • Imprisoned writer, democratic theorist Massoud Pedram on hunger strike.
  • Iran demolishes houses of activists in Ahwaz.
  • Relocating Evin prison is postponed for lack funds for prisons.
  • Isfahan prisons hold 3 times the number of prisoners for standard capacity of the prisons.
  • Imprisoned labour activists on hunger strike in Tabriz prison.
 
News of injustice in Iran
  • Sahar Beiram Abadi, Baha’i, sentenced to 2 years in prison + 1 year suspended.
  • Scientist Dr. Omid Kokabi is sentenced to 10 years for refusing to cooperate with IRGC.
  • Saman Ostevar, Baha’i, director of a pre-school in Bam, sentenced to 2 years in prison + 1 year suspended.
  • Mehdi Ramezani, father of Ramin, killed during Iran Election protests, sentenced to 3 years in prison.
  • Sirvan Saberi, Kurdish political activist, sentenced to 3 years in prison; he is in Sanandaj prison.
  • Nahale Shahidi Baha’i, sentenced to 2 years in prison + 1 year suspended.
  • 13 people were tried and convicted of espionage for Israel.
  • Majid Jamali Fashi who pleaded guilty for the murder of nuclear scientist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi will be executed on Tuesday May 15.
  • One execution in Zanjan on Wednesday.
  • One woman and 6 men hanged in Kermanshah, 3 men in Ardebil, and 16 persons in Yazd prison on Thursday, a total of 26 people in one day, of which 5 women and 5 Afghans.
  • 4 fingers of a convicted thief were amputated in Mashhad prison.

 

University  - Culture
  • The manager of Tehran book fair reported that 120 different books were collected from the fair for what he called a “violation of the fair’s regulations.”
  • 397 satellite receivers collected in Arak last week.
  • Wave of university professors forced to retire.
  • Khamenei’s fatwa (religious ruling) on the illegality of using anti-filtering was blocked.
  • Political Prisoner Mohsen Mirdamadi secretary general of Participation Front expelled from Tehran University.
  • Parviz Shahriari, major figure in Iranian education -jailed under both Shah and Islamic Republic, dies at 85.
  • Book documenting life of Supreme Leader Khamenei banned.
 
Protests
  • Last week a group of students from Marivan Azad University gathered in front of the governor’s office in protest to what they call “life dangers.”
  • Sugar cane and food industry workers in Shushtar gathered to protest low wages and a lack of transparent contracts.
  • Protests in Sistan-Baluchistan turn deadly.
  • Battle between armed forces and workers at the Art College in Karaj University.
 
Economy in Iran
  • Eram textile factory in Tehran which employed more than 200 workers has reduced the number of workers to 180.
  • 200 workers lost their jobs after “Nab” vegetable oil was closed.
  • USD 1 = 1593 tomans.
  • Iran, unable to sell oil, stores it on tankers.
  • US dollar jumps 7% (from 1580 tomans to 1695 tomans) overnight.
  • Statistics Center: Unemployment fell 1.2% to 12.3% in Iranian year ending March 19, 2012.
  • Sharp rise in Tehran rents.
  • Iran subsidy handouts to increase from 45,500 tomans ($27) to 73,000 tomans ($43) per person per month.
  • Iran to raise petrol prices to 700 -1200 tomans per liter with second phase of subsidy reform.
  • 325 fertilizer plants shut down in Iran / 15,000 workers laid off.
  • Two factories in Zanjan have laid off 140 workers, after not paying their salaries for five months.
  • Oil exports reportedly show 90 % fall in two weeks - sanctions held responsible.
 
Iran  abroad
  • Iran turns off tracking systems on tankers.
  • Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs departs for South Africa and Namibia.
  • Iran still shipping arms to Syria, UN report finds.
  • EU Forces rescue Iran fishing vessel and crew from pirates.
  • Islamic Republic of Iran threatens Google with lawsuit if they use a name other than "Persian Gulf".
  • Japan bank freezes Iran accounts after court order.
  • Arab hackers launch cyber-attack against Iranian Oil Company.
  • Sri Lanka announces reduced purchases of Iranian oil.
  • Communications jamming, monitoring, and surveillance equipment, target for new sanctions on Iran.
  • Iran to host the 12th international mathematics conference on September 2-5.
  • Two Iranian pilgrims abducted in Syria were released and handed over to Turkish officials on the Turkey-Syria border.

Politics in Iran
  • Head of Iran’s Assembly of Experts: it is acceptable to issue a warning to the Supreme Leader.
  • Battle for the next Majlis speaker’s post: Haddad Adel vs. Larijani.
  • Rafsanjani: Iranian government must allow criticism of Iran’s Expediency Council leader; people must be allowed to make constructive criticism of the government
  • Iranian Azeris set up national council in Turkey, aspire for independence.
  • Majlis approves increase in subsidies in second stage of the Subsidy Reform Plan.
  • Iran's parliament approves $462 billion budget.

Miscellaneous
  • EU force frees Iranian dhow from Somali pirates.
  • Remains of 57 Iranian soldiers killed during the war in the 1980s found in Faw peninsula in Iraq.
  • Health Ministry is concerned: Increasing alcohol consumption, alcoholism in Iran.
  • Air pollution alert issued in Tehran.
  • Another retired Sepah Commander dies of heart attack.

Des Nouvelles d'Iran - Semaine 20-2012


Nouvelles des Prisonniers
A- Transferts

  • Djavad Alikhani transféré à l’hôpital Modarres pour des calculs rénaux.
  • Le président du Front de la Participation Mohsen Mirdamadihospitalisé dimanche
  • Nargues Mohammadi transférée au dispensaire d’Evine puis à la prison de Zandjan.
  • Sarir Sadeghi transféré de Pelak 100 à la prison de Shiraz.
  • Riaz Sobhani transféré pieds et poings liés de la prison de Radjaï Shahr à un hôpital de Téhéran. 

B- Arrestations/Incarcérations

  • Yaghoub Moghani Kar arrêté à Karadj et envoyé à la prison de Rejaï Shahr, bloc du ministère du renseignement.
  • On ignore ce qu’est devenu Mohammad Hossein Nakhaï, bahaï de 85 ans arrêté à Birdjand lors d’une attaque contre son domicile me 13 Mai. 
  • Djalal SalehPour (Bulut) étudiant et poète de l’université de Tabriz, arrêté par les agents du renseignement.
  • Mohammad Djavad Shahpari rejoint deux autres membres de sa famille au bloc 350 d’Evine.
  • Afrasihab Sobhani, bahaï, arrêté à Semnan.

C-Libérations

  • Zahed Banafeshi, arrêté le 1er Mai a été libéré du centre de détention des gardes révolutionnaires de Sanandadj.
  • Le militant étudiant de l’université de Babol Moïn Ghamin a été libéré après 23 jours de détention.
  • Shirkou Kordi, arrêté le 1er Mai a été libéré du centre de détention des gardes révolutionnaires de Sanandadj.
  • Mohammad Latifi, arrêté le 1er Mai a été libéré du centre de détention des gardes révolutionnaires de Sanandadj.
  • La militante des droits humains et membre de la champagne Un Million de Signatures Ronak Safarzadeh relâchée après 55 mois.
  • Hamid Tarimoradi, arrêté le 1er Mai a été libéré du centre de détention des gardes révolutionnaires de Sanandadj.
  • Mohammad Tavassoli, membre du Mouvement de la Liberté a été libéré sous caution.
  • Après plus de 2 ans de prison, le militant étudiant Sina Zahiri est libéré de la prison de Redjaï Shahr. 

D-Autres Nouvelles 

  • Le militant Peyman Aref de nouveau cité à comparaître.
  • Le chef de l’opposition Mehdi Karroubi, assigné à domicile, a rencontré sa famille.
  • Le chef de l’opposition iranienne Moussavi et son épouse Zahra Rahnavard, assignés à domicile, ont rencontré la mère de Zahra Rahnavard.
  • L’écrivain emprisonné et théoricien de la démocratie Massoud Pedram en grève de la faim. 
  • La délocalisation  de la prison d’Evine est reportée pour cause de manque de fonds.
  • Les prisons d’Ispahan contiennent 3 fois le nombre de prisonniers pour lesquelles elles ont été construites.
  • Des syndicalistes en grève de la faim à la prison de Tabriz.

Nouvelles de l’injustice en Iran

  • Sahar Beiram Abadi, bahaïe condamnée à 2 ans de prison + 1 an avec sursis.
  • Le Docteur Omid Kokabi est condamné à 10 ans pour avoir refusé de coopérer avec les gardes révolutionnaires.
  • Saman Ostevar, directeur d’une école maternelle de Bam et bahaï condamné à 2 ans de prison + 1 an avec sursis.
  • Mehdi Ramezani, père de Ramin, tué durant les manifestations post électorales, condamné à 3 ans de prison.
  • Sirvan Saberi, militant politique kurde, condamné à 3 ans de prison ; il se trouve actuellement à la prison de Sanandaj.
  • Nahale Shahidi, bahaïe condamnée à 2 ans de prison + 1 an avec sursis.
  • L’Iran démolit les maisons des militants d’Ahwaz au bulldozer.
  • 13 personnes jugées et condamnées pour espionnage au profit d’Israël. 
  • Majid Jamali Fashi qui a plaidé coupable du meurtre du scientifique nucléaire Massoud Ali-Mohammadi est exécuté mardi.
  • Un voleur a eu quatre doigts coupés à la prison de Mashhad.
  • Une femme et 6 hommes pendus à Kermanshah, 3 hommes à Ardebil, et 16 personnes à la prison de Yazd jeudi, soit un total de 26 personnes en une seule journée, dont 5 femmes et 5 Afghans.

L’université - La culture

  • Le directeur de la foire aux livres de Téhéran rapporte que 120 livres ont été ramassés à cause de ce qu’il appelle « une violation du règlement de la foire. »
  • 397 antennes satellites confisquées à Arak la semaine dernière.
  • De nombreux professeurs d’université obligés de prendre leur retraite.
  • La fatwa de Khamenei sur l’illégalité de l’usage des dispositifs anti-filtrage est bloquée.
  • Le secrétaire général du front de la participation Mohsen Mirdamadi expulsé de l’université de Téhéran.
  • Parviz Shahriari, grande figure de l’éducation en Iran, emprisonné sous le Shah et la république islamique, décède à l’âge de 85 ans.
  • Une biographie du guide suprême interdite.

Les manifestations

  • La semaine dernière, un groupe d’étudiants de l’université Azad de Marivan s’est rassemblé devant le bâtiment du gouverneur pour protester contre ce qu’ils appellent « des dangers vitaux ».
  • Les ouvriers de la canne à sucre et ceux des industries alimentaires de Shoushtar manifestent contre les salaires trop bas et le manque de transparence des contrats.
  • Les manifestations au Sistan-Baloutchistan font au moins un mort.
  • Bataille entre les forces de l’ordre et les ouvriers de l’université d’art de Karadj. 

L’économie de l’Iran

  • L’usine textile Eram de Téhéran, qui employait plus de 200 ouvriers en a réduit le nombre à 180.
  • 200 ouvriers perdent leur emploi après la fermeture de l’usine d’huile végétale « Nab ».
  • USD 1 = 1593 tomans.
  • L’Iran, incapable de vendre son pétrole le stocke sur des tankers.
  • Le dollar grimpe de 7% (de 1580 tomans à 1695 tomans) en une seule journée.
  • Le centre des statistiques : le chômage a baissé de 1.2% pour atteindre 12.3% lors de l’année iranienne qui s’est terminée le 19 mars 2012.
  • Grosse augmentation du montant des loyers à Téhéran.
  • Les subventions augmentent de 45,500 tomans ($27) à 73,000 tomans ($43) par personne et par mois.
  • L’Iran augmente le prix de l’essence de 700 à 1200 tomans le litre lors de la seconde phase de la réforme des subventions.
  • 325 usines d’engrais ferment en Iran / 15.000 ouvriers au chômage.
  • Deux usines de Zandjan ont licencié 140 ouvriers après avoir arrêté de payer leurs salaires depuis cinq mois. 
  • Les exportations pétrochimiques ont chuté de 90% en 2 semaines suite aux sanctions européennes.

L’Iran à l’étranger

  • L’Iran désactive le système de traçage de ses tankers.
  • Le secrétaire d’état aux affaires arabes et africaines se rend en Afrique du Sud et en Namibie.
  • L’Iran envoie encore des armes à la Syrie, d’après un rapport de l’ONU.
  • Les forces armées de l’union européenne sauve un bateau de pêche iranien et son équipage des pirates.
  • La république islamique d’Iran menace Google de poursuites judiciaires s’il utilise un nom autre que « golfe persique ».
  • Après une décision de justice, le Japon gèle les avoirs de l’Iran.
  • Des hackers arabes lancent une cyber-attaque contre la compagnie nationale de pétrole iranienne. 
  • Le Sri-Lanka annonce qu’il va réduire ses importations de pétrole iranien.
  • Les systèmes de brouillage et de surveillance des communications et les équipements de surveillance, nouvelles cibles des sanctions contre l’Iran.
  • L’Iran accueillera la 12ème conférence internationale des mathématiques du 2 au 5 septembre.
  • Deux pèlerins iraniens enlevés en Syrie ont été relâchés et remis aux autorités turques sur la frontière entre la Turquie et la Syrie. 

 La politique en Iran

  • Le chef de l’assemblée iranienne des experts : il est acceptable de publier un avertissement au guide suprême. 
  • La bataille pour le poste de président du parlement : Haddad Adel contre  Laridjani.
  • Rafsandjani: le gouvernement iranien doit permettre la critique ; le chef du conseil d’expédience : il faut permettre la critique constructive du gouvernement. 
  • Les Azéris iraniens mettent en place un conseil national en Turquie qui  aspire à l’indépendance.
  • Le parlement approuve l’augmentation des subventions lors de la seconde phase du plan de réforme des subventions.
  • Le parlement iranien approuve le budget de $462 milliards.

Nouvelles en vrac 

  • L’union européenne libère un dow iranien des pirates somaliens.
  • Les restes de 57 soldats iraniens tués pendant la guerre des années 80 découverts dans la péninsule de Faw en Irak.
  • Le ministre de la santé est inquiet de l’augmentation de la consommation d’alcool et de l’alcoolisme en Iran.
  • Alerte à la pollution atmosphérique à Téhéran.
  • Un autre commandant en retraite des gardes révolutionnaires meurt d’une attaque cardiaque.

Iran Opinion: Turning the Islamic Republic into North Korea --- Does It Help the Situation?

The only way to save the world from conflict is to starve the people of Iran. 

At least that's what a new op-ed by several prominent Israeli and American political figures proposes. "Total Sanctions Might Stop Iran", published in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, lays out a grand proposal for further sanctions on Iran with a stern warning: "Our near future carries the risk of a military conflict with Iran, or a nuclear arms race in the already-volatile Middle East." The sanctions are composed of four steps:  

A) Cutting off Iran's access from international banking system absolutely and completely; 

B) Making it impossible for companies to operate in Iran by requiring them to disclose business and investment transactions, exposing them to the risk of "reputational harm";

C) Prohibiting all international cargo shippers from servicing Iranian ports and cutting Iran's access from international shipping. This could be accomplished by US and European Union laws for a 10-year entry ban on any tankers or general cargo vessels that have docked at Iranian ports in the past 36 months;

D) Prohibiting Iranian insurers and reinsurers from doing business in the EU and US.

To their credit, the authors --- three of whom are the former heads of the intelligence services of the US, Israel, and Germany --- do bring up the plight of Iran's population if these sanctions are implemented. They, however, brush these worries aside by claiming that, as Iran's economy is controlled by the regime and it is harming the people anyway, and half-hearted measures like earlier sanctions are just as detrimental.

For the authors, these harsher sanctions are perhaps the last step to avert a military conflict with Iran, showing the regime that the world is serious about preventing Tehran from getting nuclear weapons. However, they offer no timetable for when the effects of these sanctions might be visible or if and when Iran will have to be struck if these sanctions fail. Meanwhile, Iran's 75 million people ill be forced to scratch out a living inside a country that is heavily reliant on other producers for food. And that's just one vital import. 

These proposed sanctions are not just crippling. They will force the regime to evolve into an entity that fulfils all the needs of its people, from food to medicine, with restricted exchange outside the country.

There is a small glimmer of hope for the people of Iran that the regime will find some countries willing to do business with it. Those countries, however, will likely turn the Islamic Republic from one which a few years ago was selling goods to a wide variety of clients at market rates to one that buys essential import items from whatever source it can find at inflated prices. 

And if the second option is unavailable, then Iran would have to become an autarky. 

The term is derived from the Greek word autarkeia, which means self-sufficiency. And if we're going to bring up autarkeia, let's also delve into another word --- Juche. It's from the Korean language and is the driving ideology of North Korea, one of the few countries in the world which claims to be an autarky. 

The immediate parallel one might note is that the present North Korea, despite sanctions, has the nuclear weapons that sanctions are supposedly going to deny Iran. However, there is a further, bigger issue.

The problem with harsh sanctions is the speculative nature of the exercise of implementing often inhuman measures on entire populations for the deeds of their undemocratic, unelected, and dictatorial rulers. Suppose these sanctions are implemented. We do not have an example to show that a country like Iran will halt its nuclear programme. However, we do have a North Korea, hobbled by sanctions for years and attempting to become economically self-sufficient, where the regime chooses to make its people suffer to attain nuclear weapons. 

Here's a third word: khod-kifaayee. It's Persian for "self-sufficiency". Keep it in mind as pundits and former officials continue to put out their recommendations in the Wall Street Journals of the world. 


from EA WorldView: EA Iran

The Latest from Iran (18 May): Helping Damascus

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad & Bashar al-Assad0639 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Saudi Front). Mohsen Rezaei --- Secretary of the Expediency Council and Presidential candidate in 2009 (and in 2013?) --- has been vocal this week in his denunciation of the spectre of Saudi-Bahraini union. In his latest statement, Rezaei warned, "If Saudi Arabia continues like this, the Islamic Republic will lose its patience."

0631 GMT: Death-to-the-Rapper Watch. Sobh-e Farda, a students' magazine at Tehran University, has been banned because of its defence of the rapper Shahin Najafi, condemned to death by clerics and hard-line media for his song "Naqi".

Meanwhile, the prominent songwriter, playwright, and theatre director Iraj Jannati Ataie has publicly supported Najafi.

0625 GMT: Economy Watch. How serious is the problem of inflation? Baztab Emrooz reports that prostitutes in northern Tehran are now charging 200,000 Toman (about $165 at official rate).

0620 GMT: For the second day in a row, we begin with a look at Iran's manoeuvres on the Syrian front, this time with a side benefit for the Iranian economy. We post a separate feature, "How Tehran is Shipping Syria's Oil".


from EA WorldView: EA Iran

Iran Feature: How Tehran is Shipping Syria's Oil

From Lina Saigol in the Financial Times, via The Wall Street Journal:

An oil tanker belonging to Iran's state-owned shipping line has been switching flags and using multiple companies to transport crude from Syria to Iran, illustrating how Tehran is helping to sidestep international efforts to choke the finances of Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president.

Documents obtained by the Financial Times show the vessel, operated by the Islamic Republic International Shipping Lines, sailed from Syria to the Gulf of Oman and then Iran, using different flags and changing owners.

Syria is reeling from the effect of sanctions introduced by the U.S., the E.U. and some Arab states over the past year. Analysts estimate the economy has contracted by between 2% and 10%, and the Syrian pound has declined in value by a third.

Oil sanctions imposed by the E.U., which bought 95% of Syria's oil exports, have hit the country particularly hard. The sector accounted for 20% of gross domestic product before the uprising began.

Iran and Syria have long been allies and Tehran, which faces a range of international sanctions over its nuclear programme, has been accused by the U.S. of assisting the Syrian regime in its crackdown against 14-month uprising.

Evidence of co-operation between the two countries comes as industry experts note a marked increase in the use of so-called 'flags of convenience' fluttering on Iranian-owned oil tankers.

International maritime laws require vessels to be flagged, showing the country to which they are registered. For a small fee, however, vessels can register with another country, such as Bolivia, Liberia and the Marshall Islands where analysts say registration standards are less stringent.

"The Iranian tanker fleet is becoming increasingly hard to track," said Hugh Griffiths, head of the countering illicit tracking unit at the Stockholm International Peace research institute. "As a result, Iranian-owned oil tankers are migrating to less regulated flags to continue doing business - whether it is shipping oil on behalf of the Assad regime in Syria, or transporting Iranian crude," Mr Griffiths added.

The recent voyage of the MT Tour, a tanker in part owned by IRISL --- which is itself subject to international sanctions --- offers a glimpse of how this works.

The Tour's movements were tracked by the FT through a combination of shipping records, company registries and sources monitoring the vessel.

Read full article....


from EA WorldView: EA Iran

Iran Special: The Nuclear Scientist, WikiLeaks, and the Executed Kickboxer

Reuters' report on the execution of Majid Jamali Fashi


This is a story of how news is reported and created. It is a story of political manoeuvres, by actors from Iran to Israel to the US, and of propaganda. 

It is a story how, amidst all this, a man --- set up for the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist --- was arrested, sentenced, and executed.

On Tuesday, Majid Jamali Fashi, a 24-year-old kickboxer, was hung in Evin Prison on the charge of killing Masoud Alimohammadi with an explosive in January 2010. Press TV headlined, "Iran Executes Mossad Assassin of Top Nuclear Scientist". The Times of Israel, drawing from an article in The Times of London, put the provocative question, "Did a WikiLeaks document doom Iranian ‘Mossad agent’?"

This is a story of trying to establish the truth and significance between --- and far beyond --- these extremes.

In December 2010, as we were covering the initial releases of the WikiLeaks documents emerged, we posted a story which we thought combined the serious and the outlandish, "The Regime's Ninja Assassins?". The source was a 1 September 2009 despatch from the US Embassy in Azerbaijan, which had spoken with an Iranian "martial arts trainer and coach":

Private martial arts clubs and their managers are under intense pressure to cooperate with Iranian intelligence and Revolutionary Guard organizations, both in training members and in working as "enforcers" in repression of protests and politically motivated killings....

XXXXXXXXXXXX observed that Iranian internal security forces are highly suspicious of these clubs as potential vehicles for organization and "combat" training of future protesters and regime opponents. Nonetheless, he asserted that their main motivation is seeking to control these clubs is less driven by such fears as by a desire to deploy their trained membership at will for "special tasks." According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, these tasks range from providing martial arts training to Revolutionary Guard members and Basij, assistance in protest repression, intimidation, and crowd control, to political killings. He observed that use of these clubs and their members provides the security forces with "plausible deniability" for dirty undertakings, as well as trained fighters and potential trainers.

XXXXXXXXXXXX said he personally knew one such martial arts master whom he said was used by the Intelligence service to murder at least six different individuals over the course of several months in the Tabriz area. XXXXXXXXXXXX said that the victims included intellectuals and young "pro-democracy activists," adding that his assassin acquaintance was ultimately "suicided" by the authorities (i.e., killed in what was subsequently labeled a suicide).

At that point, we had not heard of Majid Jamali Fashi. But a month later, we learned of his arrest and "confession" on Iranian State TV --- he said he had worked for the Israeli intelligence service Mossad to carry out operations, including the killing a year earlier of the nuclear scientist Alimohammadi.

While writing that story, we learned that Jamali Fashi was a kickboxer. And we also learned that in August, about the time of the mysterious conversation at the US Embassy in Baku, he was winning a medal in a competition in Azerbaijan.

There was more. Claims were circulating that Jamali Fashi was one of the "enforcers" mentioned in the WikiLeaks cable, beating up protesters after the disputed Presidential elections. We also were still sifting the competing possibilities over the death of Alimohammadi, including the allegation that a "maverick" group within the Iranian establishment was carrying out killings. A valuable EA correspondent tried to put this all together:

One theory goes back to October-November 2009 when it emerged that these kickboxers were deployed in the streets of Tehran to counter the Green protestors. The idea is that Jamali is being "silenced" by the (rogue?) security forces who enlisted him.

I pressed the correspondent, "Why would he be an embarrassment? Was he going to speak?". He replied, "Well, we don't really know that."

And we never did. We re-posted the January 2011 story when Jamali Fashi was sentenced to death in August, again in a hearing with no public evidence apart from the "confession". Then we learned on Tuesday, in Iranian State media's announcements, of the execution.

That might have been that --- justice served, amid the US-Israel threat, according to the regime; another unjustified casualty of the post-2009 conflict, according to others --- except for the WikiLeaks angle.

The Times of London wanted to establish if Jamali Fashi had been "outed" to the regime, even if the name and some details of the source were hidden, by the WikiLeaks cable we noted in December 2010. During their inquiries, a reporter called me to consider the possibilities. 

In the end, having reviewed notes, I said that Jamali Fashi was probably not the person who had spoken to the US Embassy --- he was a kickboxer, not a "martial arts coach and trainer". However, I thought there might be a connection between that source and Jamali Fashi, given that the kickboxing team was in Azerbaijan at the same time. And if I made that connection, regime officials --- who paid close attention to WikiLeaks --- could have done the same. 

More importantly, I said, the regime did not need any "proof" of a connection if they wanted to put Jamali Fashi forth as the killer of the nuclear scientist: "[The cable] could have been used as a pretext against him; to set him up as a person who could take the fall for the assassination." 

Reflecting, I wonder if I emphasised enough that the regime, as in many other cases, could have used many bases to point the finger at Jamali Fashi. A rumour had circulated at the time of his arrest that he regretted his role as an "enforcer"; if so, and if he said this to too many people, he could have been seen as a trouble-maker. There may have been another argument which had led someone to denounce him. Or he coud just have been expendable

In any case, The Times posted, in the London edition and in overseas outlets, my comment that WikiLeaks ""could have raised Iranian suspicions" or "alternatively" that it served as a pretext. " In the process, however, WikiLeaks became the headline about Jamali Fashi, "WikiLeaks Cable May Have Led Tehran to Hang Kickboxer for Scientist's Murder".

Other outlets went farther. The Daily Mail of London, which effectively plagiarised the article in The Times, converted the possible into the definite: "WikiLeaks Cable 'Led Iran to Hang Kick-Boxer It Claims Was Israeli Spy Who Assassinated Nuclear Scientist'".

So I decided to go back to the story once more. And what I quickly found was that there was more than one despatch from the US Embassy Baku in summer 2009. Four days before the cable we had seen in December 2010, the Embassy had posted another version of the conversation with the "martial arts coach and trainer".

The significance in this version was that it did not withhold the name of the source or the details about him and his martial arts school. (Given the context of this case, I am not reproducing the cable.) Those additions make clear that Jamali Fashi was not the person who spoke to the Americans. Indeed, given that the source had left Iran in mid-July, with the aim of getting a visa for a foreign country, it is unlikely that he had any connection with the kickboxing team that was in Azerbaijan.

Does the immediate story end there? Probably. Majid Jamali Fashi did not seal his fate by speaking with the US Embassy in Baku in August 2009, only for his words to appear publicly months later. That fate may have influenced by an Iranian official who made guesses about the source in the original WikiLeaks document or who thought that, regardless of the truth, it could be a prop for Jamali Fashi's arrest, trial, and execution. Given the absence of public evidence in this case, we will never know.

But then, at least for me, there is the bigger story, which is similar to that of others in the Islamic Republic. Majid Jamali Fashi lost his life as an act in the continuing political theatre, both for the domestic script and for tha of Iran's relations with Israel and the US. When Iranian officials needed to establish that they were doing something about the slayings of the country's scientists, he played his part as the confessing suspect. When they needed to show their continuing strength and determination, amid the pressure of sanctions and US and Israeli rhetoric, the kickboxer was sentenced to die. And when the Islamic Republic needed to show that its version of justice would be done, in the face of the "enemy", he was hung.

Imran Khan, an Al Jazeera English report, writes of his conversation in a Tehran cafe with "Amir" on Tuesday:

I asked him if he thought that Fashi was guilty. 

"Of course. He confessed. And why would Israel not want to kill our scientists? They want to fight with us, to bomb us. So they make these lies and actions to persuade the world we are the enemy."

And this is what struck me the most. No question of the evidence against the man or how it was obtained. Of all the reporting I have seen on Fashi's death in Iran, it goes back to the same thing - that this was all part of a grand plan by Israel to make war on Iran.

After the execution, journalist Fereshteh Ghazi spoke with the wife of Masoud Alimohammadi, the alleged victim of Jamali Fashi. She said the case is still open, with 30 to 40 people arrested.

Alimohammadi's wife said she had refused to go to the execution. She then explained that she could not have granted the pardon, which according to Iranian law the family of the victim can give to the guilty: "They would have executed him anyway."


from EA WorldView: EA Iran

Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Attacks on Journalists, A Death Bounty for A Rapper, A Woman Dragged from the Book Fair (Arseh Sevom)

Claimed photo of women being dragged from the Tehran International Book Fair for inappropriate dress


Our colleagues at Arseh Sevom, an NGO promoting civil society, post their latest weekly review of developments inside Iran:

Summary: 126 Iranian journalists signed a letter protesting the arrests and harassment of journalists, sending it to the head of the judiciary and the Speaker of Parliament. After a cartoonist faced lashing for his drawing of an MP, colleagues all over the world launched a campaign of support. An MP assaulted a journalist who asked a sensitive question. Publishers banned from attending the International Book Fair received support from a prisoner of conscience. Women were targeted for bad hejab. The Minister of Communicatoins calls for government institutions to host their email and sites on domestic servers. Rapper Shahin Najafi wakes up to find a price on his head, offered by an anonymous Gulf resident, after his new song satirising the wait for the 10th Imam hit the airwaves. And more...

Journalists Protest Imprisonment and Harassment

More than 120 journalists signed a letter to the head of Iran’s judiciary and the Speaker of the Parliament protesting the imprisonment of members of the media:

In the same moment that the person behind the illegal Kharizak prison [refers to Saeed Mortazavi, whose promotion to head of the social security agency while still under criminal investigation for abuses at Kharizak remains controversial] is promoted, and the forces under your command turn a blind eye to the accusations against him, journalists are being arrested one after the other, facing verbal and physical abuse.

“He Drew Me Ugly! Boo Hoo…”

With the conclusion of the Parliamentary elections in Iran, two MPs attracted much attention last week. Mahmoud Shokraye, a cartoonist from the city of Arak, was sentenced to 25 lashes for drawing his local MP, Ahmad Lotfi Ashtiani, in a football jersey, published in Name-ye Amir weekly.

The verdict triggered a wave of outrage inside and outside Iran. Mana Neyestani, an Iranian cartoonist living in exile, called on his colleagues to join a campaign drawing cartoons of the parliamentarian. Many have contributed. Amnesty International has also condemned the sentence and called for its annulment:

Mahmoud Shokraye's brutal sentence, just for drawing a harmless cartoon, sends a chilling message to all Iranians that they cannot freely and peacefully express their views without the fear of facing harsh reprisals from the Iranian authorities. This is yet one more example of the Iranian authorities' relentless attack on freedom of expression….”

The lawmaker has since dropped the suit against the cartoonist.

Angry Birds Round Two

Another member of the Parliament, Mehdi Koochakzadeh, assaulted a journalist who tried to interview him. According to reports Mr. Koochakzadeh flew off the handle when the name of “Saeed Mortazavi” was mentioned by the journalist, who went on to criticize the MP for failing to prevent the “butcher of the press” from being promoted to the head of the biggest financial holding organization in Iran, the Social Security Organization [Sazman-e Ta’min-e Ejtema’ie].

Kofi Annan Praises Iranian Cartoonists

In Geneva earlier this month Kofi Annan, the former U.N. Secretary General, dedicated the award for the first international cartoonist prize to four Iranian cartoonists, Firoozeh Mozaffari, Hassan Karimzadeh, Mana Neyestani, and Kianoosh Ramezani.

Solidarity with Banned Publishers from Behind Bars

Last week, a jailed student activist, Majid Dorri, sent an open letter from prison calling for support of publishers banned from Tehran’s International Book Fair.

The prisoner of conscience, who has been behind bars for more than 1000 days, writes:

It has now been three years since I had the opportunity to participate in the book fair. Had I had the chance, my friends and I would have celebrated the annual book celebration at Cheshmeh Publication’s booth or a booth belonging to another one of the four banned publishers. Though these days I have less need to buy books, I have put aside some money to buy books already published by these publishers.

Worth a Thousand Words

A photo that made the rounds on social media showed a young woman being dragged into the morals police van [gasht-e ershad] for having worn “non-Islamic” dress. The Iranian opposition group called “25th of Bahman” (marking a demonstration date) captioned the photo: “An image from this year’s Book Fair: as citizens let us react and not remain silent before such ugly and inhumane acts. Rest assured the same awaits us tomorrow.”

The Morals Police to Continue Operation “With Full Power”

The summer is approaching and it is already nearly 30 degrees Centigrade (86 degrees Fahrenheit_ in Tehran. In some parts it is much warmer.

Once again, the leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khamenei, has warned against non-observation of the Islamic Hijab (dress code). Following the leader’s remarks, the chief of the morals police announced that the moral security plan would be implemented with full force again this year. Brigadier Roozbehani stated that “26 ministries and governmental organizations are appointed to cooperate in fighting against ‘foul-dressing’ in Iran.”

ICT Minister Calls for Nationalizing Emails

Mehr News Agency published a report from the Minister of Communications, Reza Taghipour, which has ordered all institutions affiliated with the Islamic Republic to stop using foreign email services such as Yahoo, Gmail, Hotmail and MSN and instead use domestic email services to maintain security and keep information from leaking. In addition to the ban on foreign email services in the government sector, all official web-hosting, internet and domain names must be registered at www.nic.ir.

Rapper with a Price on His Head

Shahin Najafi, an Iranian dissident rapper residing in Germany, has recently released an album causing much controversy within the Iranian community around the world.

The cover of Najafi’s new album depicts the dome of a shrine in the shape of a woman’s breast with a rainbow flag on the top.The title song, “Naghi,” named for the tenth Shia Imam, has made him a number of blood enemies. Others applaud him for his outstanding courage in breaking taboos within a closed society.

The website Shia online (www.shia-online.ir) announced that a wealthy donor from a Persian Gulf region country has pledged the sum of $100,000 in prize money for anyone who manages to kill Shahin Najafi for his “heresy".

EA WorldView has published an overview of the case translated from a post in German on Arshama3’s Blog.

Digarban reveals that the source of attacks against Najafi is not, as reported earlier, a fatwa directed specifically at Najafi, but a campaign initiated by the Revolutionary Guards.

Notorious Evin Prison to be Transformed into a Park

The mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, says Evin Prison will be transformed into a park in the future and a new prison will be constructed outside Tehran.

Death Sentence of Web Developer Reconsidered

In a positive move, the death sentence of Vahid Asghari, the Iranian cyber activist, has reportedly been sent back to the courts for review by the high judicial council.

Vahid Asghari is a web developer who was arrested in 2008 and accused of spying. In a letter written in 2009, he stated:

I was alleged to have received money from abroad as a result of Google advertising on the websites I hosted. I was accused of insulting the Shiite Imams and the Prophet because of their content. And I was forced to say that Hossein Derakhshan was an agent of both the Iranian ministry of intelligence and the CIA.

Gender Segregation in Universities Underway

Shargh newspaper has reported that full-fledged gender segregation is underway in Iran’s universities. Pioneered by the largest social sciences university of the country, Allameh Tabatabaie University, the report states that presently “there are more than 350 segregated classes at Allameh Tabatabaie University of which 263 are for girls and 87 for boys".

The Movements of Female Students Reported Via SMS

Young women swiping an ID to get in and out of the dormitory triggers an automatic text message sent to “the father of the family.” Tehran’s Hamshahri newspaper quoted the dean of Azad University of Boroojerd saying, “The messages are sent in real time when female students use their electronic cards to enter the dormitories.”

Amnesty International Calls for Appeals to Free Iranian Trade Unionist

Last week Amnesty International issued a statement on the prison sentence of Iranian unionist, Reza Shahabi, describing the verdict as based on “vaguely worded charges”:

Reza Shahabi...the Treasurer of the Union of Workers of the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company (Sherkat-e Vahed), has been detained in Evin Prison in the Iranian capital, Tehran, since June 2010. He is in poor health after numerous hunger strikes in protest at the conditions in which he is held. Since around February 2012, he has complained that one side of his body was numb. However, it was not until 30 April that the prison authorities took him to hospital. It is not clear whether he is receiving adequate medical treatment. Reza Shahabi was sentenced to five years’ imprisonment for “gathering and colluding against state security” and one year for “spreading propaganda against the system”

Amnesty International mentions two other Iranian unionists arrested on similar charges: Zabihollah Bagheri and Ebrahim Madadi. A letter writing campaign is unterway demanding their release.

Environmentalist Rescues Purple Heron in Qom

A post on the website of the Iranian Department of Environment reports of a rescue mission of a Purple Heron (Ardea purpurea) initiated by a philanthropic environmentalist in the city of Qom. The 80-cm bird was discovered in critical condition near a pond in the suburbs of the city in central Iran. The good news is that the bird has been resuscitated and released back into its natural habitat.


from EA WorldView: EA Iran

Iran Interview: The MP Who Attacked a Journalist...Threatens Another One (Alinejad)

In our Live Coverage, we noted last week's incident when MP Mehdi Koochakzadeh, a vocal supporter of President Ahmadinejad, attacked a journalist for a reformist publication, dragging him out of the Parliamentary restaurant.

Our colleague Masih Alinejad, who had to flee Iran after the 2009 Presidential election, decided to follow up with a phone call to Koochakzadeh. What follows is a combination of the MP's sneering, "It seems you liked [the assault], didn't you?", denunciation, "You are a servant to our enemies", and threat, "Come back from England and go to your village. Your mother is alone."


from EA WorldView: EA Iran